COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in US Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas, March 2020 to February 2022.

Importance: Prior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased. Objective: To assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023. Exposures: Metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized death rates. Results: There were death certificates for 977 018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435 943 female [44.6%]; 156 948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140 513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629 578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110 526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40 360 of 172 515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45 183 of 210 554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100 000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100 000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.

Racial Disparities in Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in United States Cities.

Against a backdrop of extreme racial health inequality, the 1918 influenza pandemic resulted in a striking reduction of non-White to White influenza and pneumonia mortality disparities in United States cities. We provide the most complete account to date of these reduced racial disparities, showing that they were unexpectedly uniform across cities. Linking data from multiple sources, we then examine potential explanations for this finding, including city-level sociodemographic factors such as segregation, implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions, racial differences in exposure to the milder spring 1918 "herald wave," and racial differences in early-life influenza exposures, resulting in differential immunological vulnerability to the 1918 flu. While we find little evidence for the first three explanations, we offer suggestive evidence that racial variation in childhood exposure to the 1889-1892 influenza pandemic may have shrunk racial disparities in 1918. We also highlight the possibility that differential behavioral responses to the herald wave may have protected non-White urban populations. By providing a comprehensive description and examination of racial inequality in mortality during the 1918 pandemic, we offer a framework for understanding disparities in infectious disease mortality that considers interactions between the natural histories of particular microbial agents and the social histories of those they infect.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Racial/Ethnic Inequities in Mortality at Midlife in Minnesota.

INTRODUCTION: Recent research underscores the exceptionally young age distribution of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. compared with that of international peers. This paper characterizes how high levels of COVID-19 mortality at midlife ages (45-64 years) are deeply intertwined with continuing racial inequity in COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: Mortality data from Minnesota in 2020-2022 were analyzed in June 2022. Death certificate data (COVID-19 deaths N=12,771) and published vaccination rates in Minnesota allow vaccination and mortality rates to be observed with greater age and temporal precision than national data. RESULTS: Black, Hispanic, and Asian adults aged <65 years were all more highly vaccinated than White populations of the same ages during most of Minnesota's substantial and sustained Delta surge and all the subsequent Omicron surges. However, White mortality rates were lower than those of all other groups. These disparities were extreme; at midlife ages (ages 45-64 years), during the Omicron period, more highly vaccinated populations had COVID-19 mortality that was 164% (Asian-American), 115% (Hispanic), or 208% (Black) of White COVID-19 mortality at these ages. In Black, Indigenous, and People of Color populations as a whole, COVID-19 mortality at ages 55-64 years was greater than White mortality at 10 years older. CONCLUSIONS: This discrepancy between vaccination and mortality patterning by race/ethnicity suggests that if the current period is a pandemic of the unvaccinated, it also remains a pandemic of the disadvantaged in ways that can decouple from vaccination rates. This result implies an urgent need to center health equity in the development of COVID-19 policy measures.

Race-Specific, State-Specific COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Adjusted for Age.

The authors provide the first age-standardized race/ethnicity-specific, state-specific vaccination rates for the United States. Data encompass all states reporting race/ethnicity-specific vaccinations and reflect vaccinations through mid-October 2021, just before eligibility expanded below age 12. Using indirect age standardization, the authors compare racial/ethnic state vaccination rates with national rates. The results show that white and Black state median vaccination rates are, respectively, 89 percent and 76 percent of what would be predicted on the basis of age; Hispanic and Native rates are almost identical to what would be predicted; and Asian American/Pacific Islander rates are 110 percent of what would be predicted. The authors also find that racial/ethnic vaccination rates are associated with state politics, as proxied by 2020 Trump vote share: for each percentage point increase in Trump vote share, vaccination rates decline by 1.08 percent of what would be predicted on the basis of age. This decline is sharpest for Native American vaccinations, although these are reported for relatively few states.

A First Look: Disparities in COVID-19 Mortality Among US-Born and Foreign-Born Minnesota Residents.

This research brief provides one of the first examinations of the impact of COVID-19 mortality on immigrant communities in the United States. In the absence of national data, we examine COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota, historically one of the major U.S. refugee destinations, using individual-level death certificates obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health Office of Vital Records. Minnesota's foreign-born crude COVID-19 death rates were similar to rates for the US-born, but COVID-19 death rates adjusted for age and gender were twice as high among the foreign-born. Among foreign-born Latinos, in particular, COVID-19 mortality was concentrated in relatively younger, prime working age men. Moreover, the place-based and temporal patterns of COVID-19 mortality were quite distinct, with the majority of US-born mortality concentrated in long-term care facilities and late in 2020, and foreign-born mortality occurring outside of residential institutions and earlier in the pandemic. The disparate impacts of COVID-19 for foreign-born Minnesotans demonstrate the need for targeted public health planning and intervention in immigrant communities. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-021-09668-1.

COVID-19 Mortality At The Neighborhood Level: Racial And Ethnic Inequalities Deepened In Minnesota In 2020.

Substantial racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality have been observed at the state and national levels. However, less is known about how race and ethnicity and neighborhood-level disadvantage may intersect to contribute to both COVID-19 mortality and excess mortality during the pandemic. To assess this potential interaction of race and ethnicity with neighborhood disadvantage, we link death certificate data from Minnesota from the period 2017-20 to the Area Deprivation Index to examine hyperlocal disparities in mortality. Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) standardized COVID-19 mortality was 459 deaths per 100,000 population in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods compared with 126 per 100,000 in the most advantaged. Total mortality increased in 2020 by 14 percent for non-Hispanic White people and 41 percent for BIPOC. Statistical decompositions show that most of this growth in racial and ethnic disparity is associated with mortality gaps between White people and communities of color within the same levels of area disadvantage, rather than with the fact that White people live in more advantaged areas. Policy interventions to reduce COVID-19 mortality must consider neighborhood context.

Geographically targeted COVID-19 vaccination is more equitable and averts more deaths than age-based thresholds alone.

COVID-19 mortality increases markedly with age and is also substantially higher among Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations in the United States. These two facts can have conflicting implications because BIPOC populations are younger than white populations. In analyses of California and Minnesota­demographically divergent states­we show that COVID vaccination schedules based solely on age benefit the older white populations at the expense of younger BIPOC populations with higher risk of death from COVID-19. We find that strategies that prioritize high-risk geographic areas for vaccination at all ages better target mortality risk than age-based strategies alone, although they do not always perform as well as direct prioritization of high-risk racial/ethnic groups. Vaccination schemas directly implicate equitability of access, both domestically and globally.

Racial Disparities in COVID-19 and Excess Mortality in Minnesota.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has produced vastly disproportionate deaths for communities of color in the United States. Minnesota seemingly stands out as an exception to this national pattern, with white Minnesotans accounting for 80 percent of the population and 82 percent of COVID-19 deaths. The authors examine confirmed COVID-19 mortality alongside deaths indirectly attributable to the pandemic-"excess mortality"-in Minnesota. This analysis reveals profound racial disparities: age-adjusted excess mortality rates for whites are exceeded by a factor of 2.8 to 5.3 for all other racial groups, with the highest rates among Black, Latino, and Native Minnesotans. The seemingly small disparities in COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota reflect the interaction of three factors: the natural history of the disease, whose early toll was heavily concentrated in nursing homes; an exceptionally divergent age distribution in the state; and a greatly different proportion of excess mortality captured in confirmed COVID-19 rates for white Minnesotans compared with most other groups.

US racial inequality may be as deadly as COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a catastrophic increase in US mortality. How does the scale of this pandemic compare to another US catastrophe: racial inequality? Using demographic models, I estimate how many excess White deaths would raise US White mortality to the best-ever (lowest) US Black level under alternative, plausible assumptions about the age patterning of excess mortality in 2020. I find that 400,000 excess White deaths would be needed to equal the best mortality ever recorded among Blacks. For White mortality in 2020 to reach levels that Blacks experience outside of pandemics, current COVID-19 mortality levels would need to increase by a factor of nearly 6. Moreover, White life expectancy in 2020 will remain higher than Black life expectancy has ever been unless nearly 700,000 excess White deaths occur. Even amid COVID-19, US White mortality is likely to be less than what US Blacks have experienced every year. I argue that, if Black disadvantage operates every year on the scale of Whites' experience of COVID-19, then so too should the tools we deploy to fight it. Our imagination should not be limited by how accustomed the United States is to profound racial inequality.